This is probably a bad idea, considering its quite possible I'll be proven completely wrong in a mere 14 hours.
I think there's 2 sides to Boom vs Meyer. Out of only the people who voted in the primary, I believe Bill Boom will win a clear majority of the votes. The fact that 2/3rds of the primary participants voted against the incumbent means a lot to me. I think when you go in to vote in a primary, you first ask yourself if you want to reelect the person who's already there. If the answer to that is no, then you pick one of the challengers. If most people follow that logic when they vote (a BIG if) then Boom should get somewhere like 60% of the primary voters. That's allowing that 8 of the 68% who didn't vote Meyer were willing to vote for someone other than Keith, but not Bill, and therefore switch their vote back to pro-incumbent in the general.
However, the primary is not the election. Common belief is that voters who didn't vote in the primary will tend to split more for the incumbent. I agree with this, as if you plan to vote for the person already in office, in most cases you can assume they will make it past the primary and into the general, so why bother? So in that case the 68% who voted against Keith in the primary shouldn't matter.
But wait, this is the 3rd ward. In the 2005 primary, 674 people cast votes. In the 2003 general election, the number appears to have been a measly 837. Unless a large number of new voters have decided to participate this year, most of the 3rd ward voters participated in the primary. (This seems like a good thing to me, since primaries have historically had low turnout) If 60% of this year's primary voters split towards Boom, that would be 404 people. So if the same number of people vote today that voted in 2003's general election, Bill would only need to pick up 17 of the people who didn't vote in the primary. I think he can do this. My prediction is that Alderman Boom will be elected 55%-45%. We'll find out tonight.
P.S. The more I look at the stats here, it appears that over half the number of the 2003 general election participants voted in the 2005 primary in several of the wards. Is Davenport increasing voter turnout in a big way? Guess we'll find that out tonight too.
P. P. S. Sorry of this is more rambling than even my normal rambling. I just got home from work and I should be going to bed, not analyzing the 3rd ward.