Monday, November 05, 2007

Who I think will win tomorrow

These are my predictions of who I think will actually be elected tomorrow for Davenport City Council and Mayor. They have nothing to do with who I think should win, which will be my next post. Hopefully I do better than the 6 out of 11 I got right 2 years ago.

Mayor: Bill Gluba
Our last Mayors have been Charlie Brooke, and Ed Winborn. I feel that the city as a whole recently has been voting for dignified older businessmen more than the younger, feistier cops we elected in the 90's. I think among people who don't follow city hall that closely, Gluba has less of a negative connotation. Its strange to go from two Republican candidates to one definite Democrat and one (current or former?) Democrat. I would say that goes to show that it doesn't matter what national political party you belong to in local politics.

At-Large: Frink and Olsen, in that order.
I know she came out and dominated in the primary, but I think Jennifer has a good following among the types of political junkies and involved people who vote in primary elections. I pretty much feel that both of these are definites; its just a matter of which order they go in. Obviously the only potential upset would be Meeker squeaking in.

1st Ward: Nate Brown
I think this will be one of the closer elections, but I wouldn't be shocked if either of them runs away with it. Nate has been getting out there and meeting people like crazy, but Gibbs has lots of name recognition and people probably feel bad for picking VanFossen over him last time.

2nd Ward: Shawn Hamerlinck
This one's easy. He tells the folks in the 2nd ward what they want to hear, holds ward meetings, and votes the way they seem to want. One of the few races I'd be willing to bet some money on.

3rd Ward: Bill Boom
Yes, I said the same thing last year and he lost, but Alderman Meyer has had some troubles recently, and the primary results didn't look good for him either. Some of this will depend on how much Boom has gotten out the vote among the young professionals moving into downtown.

4th Ward: Ray Ambrose
Maybe Jen Olsen just rubbed the 4th ward the wrong way last time, but I feel like if a longtime neighborhood activist can't dislodge Ambrose, a relative unknown like Lewis is going to have a tough time. On the other hand, it does seem like she has been out there trying to win people over, and we have no primary results to base any guesses on.

5th Ward: Bill Lynn
In the 5th ward we do have primary data to go off of, and more people voted for him than against him. The recent illegal attacks against him aren't going to help Cunningham's side, which brings out the tinfoil hat theory that they came from Lynn's own side... but I doubt it. There are definitely some rabid anti-Lynn folks out there (and who comment around here) who are probably capable of the foolish attacks. Looks like another 2 years of Lynnomics.

6th Ward: Jeff Justin
Come on... its the 6th ward. Despite Gilmour's activism, participation in dozens if not hundreds of meetings, and decent name recognition, I just don't see this D1 stronghold going for someone like Dale. The primary data pretty much confirms this.

7th Ward: Barney Barnhill
He never loses! Seriously though, this could be a close one. Barnhill only got about half the votes in the primary, so it seems to me that half the people who voted felt it was time for a change. Of course, I used that theory in the 3rd ward last time to little success.

8th Ward: Mike Matson
I don't know all that much about either of these candidates, or what efforts they've been putting in out in the 8th ward. Because of that, I'm just going to go with the Primary winner.

For those among us who worry about council voting strategy, this would leave Frink, Brown,
Boom, Justin and Barnhill as at least a bloc of 5 on one "side", with Matson/Shabilion potentially being the 6th. Either way, if Gluba is Mayor that would give us (at least) the familiar 5-5 with the Mayor breaking the tie. I think the side I generally disagree with is going to be angry after this election. First and Third wards will be the ones to watch.

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